段晚锁
中国科学院大气物理研究所LASG
电话：010-82995302
传真：010-82995172
Email:duanws@lasg.iap.ac.cn
中国科学院大气物理研究所LASG
电话：010-82995302
传真：010-82995172
Email:duanws@lasg.iap.ac.cn
个人简介
段晚锁，中国科学院大气物理研究所，研究员（二级；中科院特聘研究员；国科大岗位教授），博士生导师，全国百篇优秀博士论文，及国家杰出青年科学基金获得者。（曾）兼任"SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences" , "Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics", "Advance in Atmospheric Sciences"等杂志的编委，以及国际动力气象学委员会（ICDM）、世界气候研究计划（WCRP）中国委员会、国际气象和大气科学协会（IAMAS）中国委员会秘书长、中国气象学会地球系统数值预报专业委员会副主任委员等。目前的研究方向为：海气相互作用动力学，高影响天气气候事件可预报性动力学、目标观测、资料同化和集合预报等。
学术论文
- Ensemble forecasting of Indian Ocean Dipole events generated by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation method. Rong Feng, Wansuo Duan, Lei Hu, and Ting Liu. International Journal of Climatology, 2024, DOI: 10.1002/joc.8627.[PDF]
- Why does there occur spring predictability barrier for eastern Pacific El Niño but summer predictability barrier for central Pacific El Niño? Can You, Meiyi Hou, and Wansuo Duan. Climate Dynamics, 2024, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07429-2[PDF]
- MJO‑equatorial Rossby Wave Interferences in the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation. Yuntao Wei, Hongli Ren, Wansuo Duan and Guodong Sun. Climate Dynamics, 2024, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07380-2 .[PDF]
- Rapid summer Russian Arctic sea-ice loss enhances the risk of recent Eastern Siberian wildfires. Binhe Luo, Dehai Luo, Aiguo Dai, Cunde Xiao, Ian Simmonds, Edward Hanna, James Overland, Jiaqi Shi, Xiaodan Chen, Yao Yao, Wansuo Duan, Yimin Liu, Qiang Zhang, Xiyan Xu, Yina Diao, Zhina Jiang and Tingting Gong. Nature Communications, 2024, 15,5399 .[PDF]
- A method to calculate nonlinear optimal perturbations for ensemble forecasts. Junjie Ma, Wansuo Duan, Zhuomin Liu, and Ye Wang, Advances in Atmopsherci Sciences, 2024, accepted. [PDF]
- Exploring sensitive area in the whole Pacific for two types of El Niño predictions and their implication for targeted observations. Qianqian Qi, Wansuo Duan*, Xia Liu and Hui Xu, Frontiers in Earth Science-Atmospheric Science, 2024, 12:1429003. [PDF]
- Dynamic channel selection based on vertical sensitivities for the assimilation of FY-4A geostationary interferometric infrared sounder targeted observations. Yonghui Li, Wei Han and Wansuo Duan. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 2024. Accepted. DOI: 10.1002/qj.4760.[PDF]
- Nonlinear Optimization Problems in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences. Mu Mu , Wansuo Duan and Jiafeng Wang, East-west Journal of Mathematics, Thailand, 2002, Special Volume, 155-164.[PDF]
- Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation: A New Approach to the Stability and Sensitivity Studies in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics. Mu, M. and W. S. Duan. 16th Australasian Fluid Mechanics Conference. 2007, Australia. [PDF]
- To improve the prediction skills of typhoon intensity by identifying target observation using particle filter assimilation method. Jingjing Zhang, Wansuo Duan, Shujuan Hu, Deqian Li, Xiaohao Qin, Meiyi Hou, Boyu Chen. Atmospheric Research, 2024，303, 107326.[PDF]
- Coupled conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations and their application to ENSO ensemble forecasts. Duan Wansuo, Hu Lei, Feng Rong, SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences, 2024, 67(3), 826-842. 耦合条件非线性最优扰动及其在ENSO集合预报研究中的应用。 段晚锁、胡蕾和冯蓉。中国科学：地球科学，2024, 54(3), 845-861。[PDF]
- The Sensitive Area for Targeting Observations of Paired Mesoscale Eddies associated with Sea Surface Height Anomaly Forecasts. Jiang Lin, Duan Wansuo, Wang Hui, JGR-Ocean, 2024, 129, e2023JC020572.[PDF]
- The initial errors occurring over Pacific-Atlantic Oceans and exerting large disturbing effect on ENSO predictability. Guangshan Hou, Meiyi Hou, and Wansuo Duan, Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, 2024, 105, 101426.[PDF]
- Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation: Applications to Ensemble Forecasting of High-Impact Weather Systems. Duan Wansuo, Yang Lichao, Xu Zhizhen and Chen Jing. Chapter 17 in Numerical Weather Prediction: East Asian Perspectives edited by Seon Ki Park. Springer Atmospheric Sciences, 2023. [PDF]
- Westward-Propagating Disturbances Shape Diverse MJO Propagation. Wei Yuntao, Ren Hongli, Duan Wansuo, Sun Guodong. Geophysical Research Letters, 2023, 50, e2023GL104778, doi: 10.1029/2023GL104778.[PDF]
- Spatiotemporal estimation of analysis errors in the operational global data assimilation system at the China Meteorological Administration using a modified SAFE method. Feng jie, Wang Jincheng, Dai Guokun, Zhou Feifan, Duan Wansuo. Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society, 2023, 149: 2301–2319, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4507.[PDF]
- Evaluating the joint effect of tropical and extratropical Pacific initial errors on two types of El Niño prediction using particle filter approach. Hou Meiyi, Duan Wansuo, Zhi Xiefei. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 2023, 11(7), 1292.[PDF]
- An approach to refining the ground meteorological observation stations for improving PM2.5 forecasts in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Yang Lichao, Duan Wansuo and Wang Zifa. Geoscientific Model Development, 2023, 16, 3827–3848.[PDF]
- Recent advances in China on the predictability of weather and climate. Duan Wansuo, Yang Lichao, Mu Mu, Wang Bin, Shen Xueshun, Meng Zhiyong and Ding Ruiqiang. Advances in Atmospheric Science, 2023, 40(8), 1521−1547.[PDF]
- Evaluation of the sensitivity on mesoscale eddy associated with the sea surface height anomaly forecasting in the Kuroshio Extension. Lin Jiang, Wansuo Duan, Hui Wang, Hailong Liu, Lingjiang Tao. Frontiers in Marine Science, 2023, 10:1097209. doi: 10.3389/fmars.2023.1097209.[PDF]
- A multi-model prediction system for ENSO. Ting Liu, Yanqiu Gao,Xunshu Song, Chuan Gao, Linjiang Tao, Youmin Tang, Wansuo Duan, Ronghua Zhang, Dake Chen. Science China Earth Sciences. 2023, 66, 1231-1240. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-022-1094-0；一个ENSO多模式集合预报系统介绍。刘婷，高艳秋，宋迅殊，高川，陶灵江，唐佑民，段晚锁，张荣华，陈大可。中国科学：地球科学，2023， 53(6): 1235-1245.[PDF]
- Role of the thermodynamic structure of the inner core in predicting the intensification of Hurricane Patricia (2015). Quanjia Zhong, Xu Lu, Xuguang Wang, Ruiqiang Ding, Wansuo Duan, Zhaolu Hou. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 2023, 128, e2023JD038645. [PDF]
- Impact of the low wavenumber structure in the initial vortex wind analyses on the prediction of the intensification of Hurricane Patricia (2015). Quanjia Zhong, Xuguang Wang, Ruiqiang Ding, Xu Lu, Yongjie Huang, Wansuo Duan.. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 2022, 128, e2022JD037082. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037082.[PDF]
- 2022 年汛期气候趋势预测与展望。彭京备, 郑飞 范方兴, 陈红, 郎咸梅, 詹艳玲, 林朝晖, 张庆云 , 林壬萍, 李超凡, 马洁华, 田宝强, 包庆, 穆松宁, 宗海锋, 王磊, 段晚锁, 周天军。气候与环境研究，2022, 27(4), 547-558.[PDF]
- Impacts of initial zonal current errors on the predictions of two types of El Niño events. Tao L. J., M. Mu, L. Wang, X. H. Fang, W. S. Duan, and R. H. Zhang. JGR-Oceans, 2023, 128, e2023JC019833.[PDF]
- A New Approach to Represent Model Uncertainty in the Forecasting of Tropical Cyclones: The Orthogonal Nonlinear Forcing Singular Vectors. Zhang Yichi, Duan Wansuo, Stéphane Vannitsem and Zhang Han. Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society, 2023, 149: 2206–2232, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4502.[PDF]
- Using an ensemble nonlinear forcing singular vector data assimilation approach to address the ENSO forecast uncertainties caused by the “spring predictability barrier” and El Niño diversity. Zheng Yingcong, Duan wansuo, Tao Lingjiang, Ma junjie. Climate Dynamics, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06834-3.[PDF]
- Using the orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations approach to address the uncertainties of tropical cyclone track forecasts generated by the WRF model. Zhang Han, Duan Wansuo and Zhang Yichi. Weather and Forecasting, 2023, 38, 1907–1933, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-22-0175.1.[PDF]
- Seasonally Alternate Roles of the North Pacific Oscillation and the South Pacific Oscillation in Tropical Pacific Zonal Wind and ENSO.Zhong W. X., W.J. Cai, A. Sullivan,W.S. Duan, S. Yang. Journal of Climate. 2023, 40, 791–803. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0461.1.[PDF]
- Evaluation and Projections of Extreme Precipitation using a Spatial Extremes Framework. Yang Lichao, Christian L. E. Franzke, Duan Wansuo, International Journal of Climatology, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8038.[PDF]
Questions, comments, suggestions? E-Mail me, please!
duanws@lasg.iap.ac.cn
duanws@lasg.iap.ac.cn