段晚锁个人主页

段晚锁
中国科学院大气物理研究所LASG
电话：010-82995302
传真：010-82995172
Email:duanws@lasg.iap.ac.cn

兴趣链接

* 中国科学院大气物理研究所
 * 大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室

个人简介

段晚锁，中国科学院大气物理研究所，研究员（二级；中科院特聘研究员；国科大岗位教授），博士生导师，全国百篇优秀博士论文，及国家杰出青年科学基金获得者。兼任SCI杂志 "Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics" 和 "Advance in Atmospheric Sciences" 编委、核心期刊《大气科学》常务编委，以及国际动力气象学委员会（ICDM）、世界气候研究计划（WCRP）中国委员会委员等。目前的研究方向为：海气相互作用，天气、气候可预报性，集合预报，目标观测等。

学术论文

Exploring sensitive area in the tropical Indian Ocean for the El Nino predictions: an implication for targeted observation. Zhou Qian, and Duan Wansuo. Journal of Oceanology and Limnology. 2019. doi: 10.1007/s00343-019-9062-4.[PDF]
Using a nonlinear forcing singular vector approach to reduce model error effects in ENSO forecasting. Tao L. J., and W. S., Duan, Weather and Forecasting. 2019. 1321-1342. DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-19-0050.1[PDF]
初始扰动振幅和集合样本数对CNOPs集合预报的影响，汪叶、段晚锁，大气科学，2019，43(4)，919-933。[PDF]
Season-dependent predictability barrier for two types of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events revealed by an approach to data analysis for predictability. Hou Meiyi, Duan Wansuo, Zhi Xiefei. Climate Dynamics. 2019. doi: 10.1007/s00382-019-04888-w. [PDF]
数值天气预报、气候预测的集合预报方法：思考与展望。段晚锁、汪叶、霍振华、周菲凡。气候与环境研究， 2019。24（3），396-406。[PDF]
Indian Ocean Dipole-related predictability barriers induced by initial errors in the tropical Indian Ocean in a CGCM, Feng Rong, Duan Wansuo, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 2019. 36, 658-668. doi: 10.1007/s00376-019-8224-9.[PDF]
Season-dependent predictability and error growth dynamics for La Niña predictions. Hu Junya, Duan Wansuo, Zhou Qian, Climate Dynamics. 2019, doi: 10.1007/s00382-019-04631-5[PDF]
The Initial Condition Errors Occurring in the Indian Ocean Temperature That Cause “Spring Predictability Barrier” for El Niño in the Pacific Ocean. Qian Zhou, Mu Mu, Wansuo Duan. JGR-Ocean, 2019 doi: 10.1029/2018JC014403[PDF]
Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Track with orthogonal Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations. Huo Zhenhua, Duan Wansuo, and Feifan Zhou, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2019. 36(2), 231-247.[PDF]
The role of initial signals in the tropical Pacific Ocean in predictions of negative Indian Ocean Dipole events. Feng Rong and Duan Wansuo, SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences, 2018. 61. doi:10.1007/s11430-018-9296-2[PDF]
Progress in ENSO prediction and predictability study. Tang Youmin, Zhang Ronghua, Liu Ting, Duan Wansuo, et al. National Science Review, 2018, 5(6), 840-857. doi:10.1093/nsr/nwy105.[PDF]
北京地区一次空气重污染过程的目标观测分析[J]。刘娜，段晚锁，王自发等。气候与环境研究。 2018, 23，619-632 [PDF]
The application of the orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations method to typhoon track ensemble forecasts. Huo Zhenhua and Duan Wansuo, SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences. 2018.10.1007/s11430-018-9248-9[PDF]
Possible sources of forecast errors generated by the global/regional assimilation and prediction system for landfalling tropical cyclones. Part II: model uncertainty. Zhou Feifan, Duan Wansuo, Zhang He, Munehiko Yamaguchi, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2018. 35, 1277-1290. [PDF]
Investigating the initial errors that cause predictability barriers for IOD events using CMIP5 model outputs. Feng Rong and Duan Wansuo, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2018. 35(10), 1305-1320.[PDF]
Asymmetry of the predictability limit of the warm ENSO phase. Zhaolu Hou, Jianping Li, Ruiqiang Ding, Christina Karamperidou, Wansuo Duan, Ting Liu, and Jie Feng, 2018. Geophysical Research Letters. 45. 10.1029/2018GL077880. [PDF]
粒子滤波同化在厄尔尼诺-南方涛动目标观测中的应用。段晚锁、封凡、侯美夷，大气科学，2018，42(3), 677-695[PDF]
季风与ENSO的选择性相互作用：年循环和春季预报障碍的影响。杨崧、邓开强、段晚锁，大气科学，2018，42(3), 570-589 [PDF]
"Summer Predictability Barrier" of Indian Ocean Dipole Events and Corresponding Error Growth Dynamics, Liu Da, Duan Wansuo, Feng Rong, Tang Youmin, JGR-Ocean, 2018. 123, doi: 10.1029/2017JC013739[PDF]
Predictability of El Niño-Southern Oscillation Events. Wansuo Duan, Mu Mu, Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science, 2018. doi:10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.80.[PDF]
Impact of SST anomaly events over the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension on the "summer prediction barrier". Wu Yujie, Duan Wansuo. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2018. 35, 397-409.[PDF]
Towards optimal observational array for dealing with challenges of El Niño-Southern Oscillation predictions due to diversities of El Niño. Duan W.S., Li X. Q., Tian B. Climate Dynamics, 2018. doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4082-x.[PDF]
The predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions: Retrospect and prospects. Mu Mu, Wansuo Duan, Youmin Tang, Science China: Earth Sciencess, 2017. 60, 2001-2012. doi:10.1007/s11430-016-9101-x[PDF]
The application of nonlinear local Lyapynov vectors to the Zebiak-Cane model and their performance in ensemble prediction. Zhaolu Hou, Jianping Li, Ruiqiang Ding, Jie Feng, Wansuo Duan. Clim Dyn. 2017. Doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3920-6[PDF]
耦合模式中北太平洋和北大西洋海表面温度年代际可预报性和预报技巧的季节依赖性。容新尧、刘征宇、Liu Yun、段晚锁，地球科学进展，2017, 32, 382-395[PDF]
On the "spring predictability barrier" for strong El Nino events as derived from an intermediate coupled model ensemble prediction system. Qi Qianqian, Duan Wansuo, Zheng Fei, and Tang Youmin. SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences, 2017, doi: 10.1007/s11430-017-9087-2[PDF]
Nonlinearity modulating intensities and spatial structures of Central Pacific- and Eastern Pacific-El Niño events, Duan Wansuo, Huang Chaoming, Xu Hui, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2017. 34,737-756.[PDF]
Reducing the prediction uncertainties of high-impact weather and climate events: an overview of studies at LASG. Duan Wansuo and Feng Rong. Journal of Meteorological Research. 2017. 31, 224-235, doi: 10.1007/s13351-016-6099-6.[PDF]
Relationship between optimal precursors for Indian Ocean Dipole events and optimally growing initial errors in its prediction. Mu, M., R. Feng, and W. S. Duan. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 2017, 122, doi:10.1002/2016JC012527. [PDF]
The role of nonlinear forcing singular vector tendency error in causing the "spring predictability barrier" for ENSO. Duan Wansuo, Zhao Peng, Hu Junya, Xu Hui,Journal of Meteorological Research, 2016. 30(6), 853-866, doi: 10.1007/s13351-016-6011-4.[PDF]
IOD-related optimal initial errors and optimal precursors for IOD predictions from reanalysis data. Feng Rong, and Duan Wansuo. SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences. 2016, 60, 156-172, doi:10.1007/s11430-016-0103-9.[PDF]
Numerical Analysis of the Mixed 4th-Order Runge-Kutta Scheme of Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation Approach for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation Model,Xin Zhao, Jian Li, Wansuo Duan, and Dongqian Xue, Adv. Appl. Math. Mech., 2016, 8(6), 1023-1035. [PDF]
Seasonal predictability of sea surface temperature anomalies over the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension: low in summer and high in winter, Wu Yujie, Duan Wansuo, Rong Xinyao, Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 2016, 121, doi:10.1002/2016JC011887.[PDF]
A Time-scale Decomposed Threshold Regression Downscaling Approach to Forecasting South China Early Summer Rainfall,Linye Song, Wansuo Duan, Yun Li, and Jiangyu Mao, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2016, 33, 1071-1084. doi:10.1007/s00376-016-5251-7.[PDF]
Relationship between optimal precursory disturbances and optimally growing initial errors associated with ENSO events: Implications to target observations for ENSO prediction, Junya Hu, Wansuo Duan, Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans,2016, 121, doi:10.1002/2015JC011386.[PDF]
Estimating observing locations for advancing beyond the winter predictability barrier of Indian Ocean dipole event predictions, Rong Feng, Wansuo Duan, and Mu Mu, Climate Dynamics, 2016, 48, 1173-1185. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3134-3.[PDF]
Comparison of constant and time-variant optimal forcing approaches in El Niño simulations by using the Zebiak-Cane model. Tian Ben, Wansuo Duan, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2016. 33(6), 685-694, doi:10.1007/s00376-015-5174-8.[PDF]
An approach to generating mutually independent initial perturbations for ensemble forecasts: orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations. Wansuo Duan, Zhenhua Huo, J. Atmos. Sci., 2016, 73, 997-1014. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0138.1[PDF]
Application of Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation to Targeted Observation Studies of the Atmosphere and Ocean, Mu Mu, Wang Qiang, Duan Wansuo, and Jiang Zhina, J. Meteor. Res,. 2015, 28(5), 923-933, doi:10.1007/s13351-014-4057-8.[PDF]
关于线性奇异向量和条件非线性最优扰动差别的一个注记。霍振华，段晚锁，气候与环境研究，2015，20（6）：715-725. [PDF]
The influence of boreal winter extratropical North Pacific Oscillation on Australian spring rainfall, Linye Song, Yun Li, and Wansuo Duan, Clim Dyn, 2015, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2895-4[PDF]
Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and the “spring predictability barrier” for El Nino predictions. DuanWansuo, Mu Mu. Chapter 5 in Climate Change edited by Chin-Pei Chang, Michael Ghil, Mojib Latif, and John M. Wallace. World Scientific Series on Asian-Pacific Weather and Climate, 2015.[PDF]
Comparison of the initial errors most likely to cause a spring predictability barrier for two types of El Nino events,Ben Tian and Wansuo Duan, Clim Dyn, 2015, DOI:10.1007/s00382-015-2870-0[PDF]
Interannual Relationship between the Winter Aleutian Low and Rainfall in the Following Summer in South China,Linye Song and Wansuo Duan, Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett, 2015,8(5) 271-276[PDF]
The initial errors that induce a significant “spring predictability barrier” for El Nino events and their implications for target observations:results from an earth system model,Wansuo Duan and Junya Hu,Clim Dyn,2015,46(11), 3599-3615, DOI ：10.1007/s00382-015-2789-5[PDF]
Target observations for improving initialization of high-impact ocean-atmospheric environmental events forecasting. Mu Mu, Wansuo Duan, Dake Chen, Weidong Yu. National Science Review: 2015, 2,226-236[PDF]
Influence of Positive/Negative Indian Ocean Dipole on Pacific ENSO through Indonesian Throughflow: results from Sensitivity Experiments. Zhou, Qian, Wansuo Duan， Mu Mu， Rong Feng. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2014, doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4141-0.[PDF]
The “winter predictability barrier” for IOD events and its error growth dynamics: results from a fully coupled GCM. Feng, R., W. S. Duan, and M. Mu. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 2014, 119, doi:10.1002/2014JC10473.[PDF]
Revealing the most disturbing tendency error of Zebiak-Cane model associated with El Nino predictions by nonlinear forcing singular vector approach. Duan, W. S., and Zhao, P.. Climate Dynamics: 2014, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2369-0[PDF]
The spatial patterns of initial errors related to the “winter predictability barrier” of the Indian Ocean dipole, Feng, R., and Duan, W. S., Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett.: 2014, 7, doi:10.3878/j.issn.1674-2834.14.0018[PDF]

Questions, comments, suggestions? E-Mail me, please!
duanws@lasg.iap.ac.cn