段晚锁个人主页

段晚锁
中国科学院大气物理研究所LASG
电话：010-82995302
传真：010-82995172
Email:duanws@lasg.iap.ac.cn

兴趣链接

* 中国科学院大气物理研究所
 * 大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室

个人简介

段晚锁，中国科学院大气物理研究所，研究员（二级；中科院特聘研究员；国科大岗位教授），博士生导师，全国百篇优秀博士论文，及国家杰出青年科学基金获得者。兼任SCI杂志"Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics", "Advance in Atmospheric Sciences" , 以及Journal of Marine Science and Engneering杂志编委、核心期刊《大气科学》常务编委，以及国际动力气象学委员会（ICDM）、世界气候研究计划（WCRP）中国委员会、国际气象和大气科学协会（IAMAS）中国委员会委员等。目前的研究方向为：海气相互作用，以及台风、厄尔尼诺、印度洋偶极子等高影响天气、气候事件和海洋中尺度涡的可预报性、目标观测、资料同化和集合预报等。

学术论文

Seasonally Alternate Roles of the North Pacific Oscillation and the South Pacific Oscillation in Tropical Pacific Zonal Wind and ENSO.Zhong W. X., W.J. Cai, A. Sullivan,W.S. Duan, S. Yang.J. Climate, 2021, submitted.[PDF]
How does ENSO affect predictability barrier of Indian Ocean dipole event?Liu D., W.S. Duan, and R. Feng. J. Marine Sciences and Engineering. 2021. Submitted.[PDF]
Using Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation to Generate Initial Perturbations in ENSO Ensemble Forecasts. Zhou Q., L. Chen, and W.S. Duan, etc. Weather and Forecasting.2021, accepted.[PDF]
The optimally-growing initial error of sea surface height anomaly forecasts and its implication for target observations of mesoscale eddies. Jiang L., W. S. Duan, and H.L. Liu, J. Physical Oceanography. 2021. Submitted.[PDF]
A precursory signal of the Central Pacific El Niño event: Eastern Pacific cooling mode.Tao L.J., and W.S. Duan, J. Climate. 2021, Submitted.[PDF]
Model errors of an intermediate model and their effects on realistic predictions of El Niño diversity.Tao L.J., and W.S. Duan, JGR-Atmosphere, 2021. Submitted. [PDF]
The most sensitive initial error modes modulating intensities of CP- and EP- El Niño events. Qi Qianqian, Duan Wansuo, and Xu Hui, Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, 2021, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2021.101257[PDF]
Interdecadal change in the relationship between boreal winter North Pacific Oscillation and Eastern Australian rainfall in the following autumn. Linye Song, Shangfeng Chen, Wen Chen, Wansuo Duan, and Yun Li, Climate Dynamics. 2021. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05864-z[PDF]
台风强度模拟的海温目标观测研究，姚佳伟，段晚锁，大气科学，2021，接收。[PDF]
The Initial Errors in the Tropical Indian Ocean that Can Induce a Significant “Spring Predictability Barrier” for La Niña Events and Their Implication for Targeted Observations. Zhou Qian, Wansuo Duan, Xu Wang, Xiang Li, Ziqing Zu, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2021. Accepted.[PDF]
On the sensitive areas for targeted observations in ENSO forecasting, Jingjing Zhang , Shujuan Hu*, Wansuo Duan*. AOSL, 2021. 14 (5), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aosl.2021.100054[PDF]
Which Features of the SST Forcing Error Most Likely Disturb the Simulated Intensity of Tropical Cyclones? Yao Jiawei, Duan Wansuo, Qin Xiaohao, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2021, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-020-0073-z.[PDF]
Typhoon intensity forecasting based on LSTM using the rolling forecast method, Shijin Yuan, Cheng Wang, Bin Mu, Feifan Zhou, and Wansuo Duan, 2021. Algorithms, 14, 83. https://doi.org/10.3390/a14030083.[PDF]
Optimally growing initial errors of El Nino events in the CESM, Xu Hui, Chen Lei, Duan Wansuo. 2021, Climate Dynamics, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05668-1[PDF]
Forecast uncertainty of rapid intensification of typhoon Dujuan (201521) induced by uncertainty in the boundary layer. Qin Xiaohao and Duan Wansuo, Atmosphere, 2020. 11,1263, doi: 10.3390/atmos11111263.[PDF]
Model forecast error correction based on the Local Dynamical Analog method: an example application to the ENSO forecast by an Intermediate Coupled Model.Zhaolu Hou, Bin Zuo, Shaoqing Zhang, Fei Huang, Ruiqiang Ding, Wansuo Duan,Jianping Li.Geophysical Research Letters. 2020. 47,DOI: 10.1029/2020GL088986.[PDF]
Predictable patterns of wintertime surface air temperature in Northern Hemisphere and their predictability sources in SEAS5, Fan Hongdou, Lin Wang, Yang Zhang, Youmin Tang, Wansuo Duan, and Lei Wang, Journal of Climate, 2020. 33, 10743-10754. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0542.1[PDF]
On the use of near-neutral backward Lyapunov vectors to get reliable ensemble forecasts in coupled ocean-atmosphere systems.Stéphane Vannitsem, Wansuo Duan, Climate Dynamics, 2020. doi: 10.1007/s00382-020-05313-3[PDF]
Improving forecasts of El Niño diversity: a nonlinear forcing singular vector approach. Tao Linjiang, Duan Wansuo, and Stephane Vannitsem, Climate Dynamics. 2020. 55: 739-754. doi: 10.1007/s00382-020-05292-5[PDF]
Sensitivity on tendency perturbations of tropical cyclone short-range intensity forecasts generated by WRF. Qin Xiaohao, Duan Wansuo, and Xu Hui, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2020. 37, 291-306.[PDF]
Errors in current velocity in the low-latitude north Pacific: results from the regional ocean modeling system. Wen Xixi, Duan Wansuo, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2019, 36, 397-416.[PDF]
近海台风立体协同观测科学试验, 雷小途, 张雪芬, 段晚锁, 李泓, 高志球, 钱传海, 赵兵科, 和汤杰, 地球科学进展: 2019, 34 (7), 671-678.[PDF]
Exploring sensitive area in the tropical Indian Ocean for El Nino predictions: implication for targeted observation. Zhou Qian, Duan Wansuo, Hu Junya. Journal of Oceanology and Limnology. 2019. doi: 10.1007/s00343-019-9062-4[PDF]
Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Track with orthogonal Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations. Huo Zhenhua, Duan Wansuo, Feifan Zhou, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2019. 36(2), 231-247.[PDF]
The Initial Condition Errors Occurring in the Indian Ocean Temperature That Cause “Spring Predictability Barrier” for El Niño in the Pacific Ocean. Qian Zhou, Mu Mu, and Wansuo Duan. JGR-Ocean, 2019 doi: 10.1029/2018JC014403[PDF]
Season-dependent predictability and error growth dynamics for La Niña predictions. Hu Junya, Duan Wansuo, and Zhou Qian, Climate Dynamics. 2019, doi: 10.1007/s00382-019-04631-5[PDF]
Indian Ocean Dipole-related predictability barriers induced by initial errors in the tropical Indian Ocean in a CGCM, Feng Rong, and Duan Wansuo, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 2019. 36, 658-668. doi: 10.1007/s00376-019-8224-9.[PDF]
数值天气预报、气候预测的集合预报方法：思考与展望。段晚锁，汪叶，霍振华，周菲凡。气候与环境研究， 2019。24（3），396-406。[PDF]
Season-dependent predictability barrier for two types of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events revealed by an approach to data analysis for predictability. Hou Meiyi, Wansuo Duan, Xiefei Zhi. Climate Dynamics. 2019. doi: 10.1007/s00382-019-04888-w. [PDF]
初始扰动振幅和集合样本数对CNOPs集合预报的影响，汪叶, 段晚锁，大气科学，2019，43(4)，919-933。[PDF]

Questions, comments, suggestions? E-Mail me, please!
duanws@lasg.iap.ac.cn